Effect size estimation in cooperative group and industry sponsored phase 3 oncology trials
Menée à partir de l'analyse de 385 essais cliniques de phase III parrainés par l'industrie ou des groupes coopératifs, cette étude examine les facteurs affectant l'estimation de la taille de l'effet observé et met en évidence une corrélation entre parrainage, calculs de puissance des essais cliniques et résultats de ces essais
Overly optimistic estimations of effect sizes may lead to underpowered studies and risk of erroneously dismissing effective treatments. To understand the prevalence and factors contributing to estimation of effect sizes, we evaluated 385 superiority-design phase 3 oncology randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with pre-specified and observed hazard ratios (HR) in published manuscripts. Of these, 88 % were sponsored by industry and 22.6 % were sponsored by cooperative groups. Few studies (10 %) provided justification of their chosen sample size in the manuscript or available protocol. Overly optimistic estimations of effect sizes were common in cooperative group studies and, by contrast, uncommon in industry-sponsored studies. Moreover, industry-sponsored trials meeting the primary endpoint frequently achieved significantly lower HRs than expected. Together, these data suggest a correlation between study sponsorship, clinical trial power calculations, and subsequent trial outcomes.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute , résumé 2025